The archive is Wikipedia's Current-events portal, every dated entry from 2010 to last month. A month holds several hundred; this prints the thirty biggest, ranked by a prominence proxy built from the death toll where one is stated, how many articles the entry links to, and how much was written. The rest still count toward the forecast, which reads counts rather than headlines.
The forecast edition is the project's own recursive loop: key crises drawn from the archive, local crises drawn from those, then the key crises drawn again now that the local ones exist. That third pass is where an event can emerge that no reading of the first pass contained — those rows say so. It runs once per month and each month is fed the months before it, its own predictions included, so a row that follows from an earlier forecast names which one.
What a forecast headline is not. It is not a count. Nothing here estimates how much news a country will produce; every row is a named event with a country, a magnitude and a stated reason drawn from the entries that preceded it. And it is not a verdict: whether a named crisis happened is a judgement about meaning, so the page reports coverage and refuses to score itself.